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Zacks Earnings Preview: AutoZone, Costco Wholesale, Fuel Systems Solutions, Tech Data Corporation and Ciena

Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE: AZO), Costco Wholesale Corporation (Nasdaq: COST), Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSYS) and Tech Data Corporation (Nasdaq: TECD). To see more earnings analysis, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.

Every day, Zacks.com makes 4 stock picks available, free of charge. To see them, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=3567.

The Week's Events

As fourth-quarter earnings season winds down, traders will be even more focused on the news coming out of Washington.

Congress will debate the president's budget proposal, which includes allocations for absorbing bank losses. There will also be ongoing discussion about the stress tests for banks. Not to mention speculation about whether the government will take a large ownership position in other financial companies. Finally, aid for auto parts suppliers and healthcare reform are on the agenda.

Economic data will also grab the attention of traders. The week's schedule includes the ISM manufacturing survey (Monday), the Beige Book (Wednesday at 2pm) and February employment data (Friday).

  • Monday: February ISM manufacturing survey, January personal income and spending, January construction spending
  • Tuesday: January pending home sales, February auto sales
  • Wednesday: February ISM non-manufacturing survey, ADP employment, Federal Reserve Beige Book, weekly crude inventories
  • Thursday: Fourth-quarter productivity (revised), January factory orders, weekly crude inventories
  • Friday: February unemployment and nonfarm payrolls, January consumer credit

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the Senate budget committee on Tuesday morning. He will speak about the impact of the economy on the federal budget. The fed chairman will speak again on Saturday, Mar 7, at a dedication ceremony in South Carolina.

Vice Chairman Donald Kohn will appear before the Senate's Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Thursday. He will speak about American International Group on Thursday.

As for earnings, we have confirmed reports from 204 companies. Within in this group are 8 S&P 500 members, including AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE: AZO), Ciena Corporation (Nasdaq: CIEN) and Costco Wholesale Corporation (Nasdaq: COST).

Stocks remain oversold, suggesting that a bounce should occur soon. However, both indexes and stocks can stay oversold (or overbought) for an extended period of time.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

During the past few weeks, 3 of the 18 covering brokerage analysts raised their fiscal second-quarter profit projections on AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE: AZO). The revisions pushed the consensus earnings estimate back up to $1.84 per share. The most accurate estimate is far more bullish, at $1.93 per share. AZO has beat expectations twice during the past 4 quarters, but also missed once. AutoZone is scheduled to report Tuesday, Mar 3, before the start of trading.

Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSYS) has topped expectations for 4 consecutive quarters. Ahead of the company's fourth-quarter report, 1 brokerage analyst raised his profit forecast, which helped the consensus earnings estimate rise back to 41 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is slightly more bullish at 50 cents per share. This is a volatile stock with the potential to respond to good earnings. Fuel Systems Solutions is scheduled to report on Thursday, Mar 5, after the close of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

Earlier this month, Costco Wholesale Corporation (Nasdaq: COST) warned that fiscal second-quarter earnings would be "substantially below" the consensus earnings estimate. The company blamed the economy, price-based promotions and lower gasoline profits for the warning. Nearly all of the covering analysts cut their projections in response, sending the average profit forecast 11 cents lower to 60 cents per share. Costco has historically met or topped expectations, so a miss may not occur. However, forecasts for the remainder of fiscal 2009 have been cut and it is probable that guidance for the second-half of the year will be disappointing. Costco is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Mar 4, before the start of trading.

Tech Data Corporation (Nasdaq: TECD) has missed profit expectations for 2 consecutive quarters. Though earnings estimates are unchanged ahead of the company's fiscal fourth-quarter report, forecasts for fiscal 2010 are dropping. This suggests a strong possibility of disappointing guidance. Tech Data is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Mar 3, before the start of trading.

Charles Rotblut, CFA, is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com.

Want to turn earnings surprises into quick profits? Learn how by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=3206.

About the Zacks Rank

Since 1988, the Zacks Rank has proven that "Earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices." Since inception in 1988, #1 Rank Stocks have generated an average annual return of +28%. During the 2000-2002 bear market, Zacks #1 Rank stocks gained +43.8%, while the S&P 500 tumbled -37.6%. Also note that the Zacks Rank system has just as many Strong Sell recommendations (Rank #5) as Strong Buy recommendations (Rank #1). Since 1988, Zacks Rank #5 stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 by 82% annually (+2% versus +10%). Thus, the Zacks Rank system allows investors to truly manage portfolio trading effectively.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter offers continuous coverage of the industries and the stocks poised to outperform the market. Subscribe to this free newsletter today by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=4988.

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=3568.

Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contacts:

Zacks.com
Charles Rotblut, CFA
Phone: 312-265-9352
Email: pr@zacks.com
Visit: www.Zacks.com

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