Eggs prices are rising, and industry experts project that these higher costs will persist into 2025, particularly if Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) also known as "bird flu" infections, continues.
Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute Sector Manager Kevin Bergquist said egg prices have been elevated since 2023 due to the combination of seasonal price increases during the holidays and disruption in egg supply due to bird flu.
Prices over the past year have "generally" remained above 2023 prices and even "often exceeded egg prices from 2022, which was when HPAI really caught the egg market," according to Bergquist.
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Wholesale egg prices, which jumped nearly 55% in November, do not necessarily reflect consumer egg prices at the grocer, which can vary widely.
According to the Consumer Price Index, grocery prices rose 0.5% in November, with four of the six major grocery store food group rising in cost. Eggs showed the largest increase by a wide margin.
Prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 1.7% in November, but prices for eggs rose 8.2%.
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Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute Chief Agricultural Economist Dr. Michael Swanson told Fox Business that the consumer price is more pertinent because its what the consumer sees.
"Many retailers are slow to adjust prices on staples such as milk and eggs that get the consumer into the store," Swanson said. "They will use that category to help with their overall pricing. Sometimes, they get bigger margins, and sometimes they take negative margins for a short-term to keep from upsetting the consumer with big changes."
Prior to the large bird flu outbreak in March 2022, flock numbers were at a level that supported lower egg prices, according to Bergquist. He noted the wholesale price was less than $1.50 per dozen.
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However, the outbreak disrupted the market, leading to record egg prices in December 2022. The average price corrected to a lower level by 2023 as producers rebuilt their flocks.
Bergquist said that the flock size was hindered again when bird flue re-emerged in late 2023 and into 2024, resulting in under-supplied egg markets.
Producers still haven't been able to rebuild the total egg-laying flock with the reoccurring outbreaks this year.
