When most people tune into a debate, they’re hoping to see a knockout.
What they get, most of the time, is a lot of skirmishing. Combatants get nicked and cut, but no one gets carried off on a stretcher.
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So when the Republican candidates walk off the stage after tonight’s Fox News debate in Milwaukee, it’s unlikely that any one of them will be crowned the winner. But you never know.
There have been notable exceptions in history. It was over when VP nominee Lloyd Bentsen turned to Dan Quayle and said, "Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy."
A similar fate befell Marco Rubio when he kept repeating the same line and Chris Christie called him out: "There it is. There it is. The memorized 25-second speech. There it is, everybody."
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And sometimes a candidate punches himself out, as when Barack Obama thought it was a bright idea to say, "You’re likable enough, Hillary."
But in a multi-candidate field, it can be hard to stand out, or get enough time to hammer home a message.
The current crop is unusual in that, other than Christie and Mike Pence, there’s not an instantly recognizable face among them. (Yeah, and that other guy isn’t coming.)
Ron DeSantis drew plenty of coverage for his landslide Florida victory, but how many Americans had heard his voice before the campaign started? Tim Scott is kinda sorta known as a senator, but most of the country knows little about him. Nikki Haley held important jobs as South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador, but had been out of the game for a couple of years.
And Vivek Ramaswamy?
So to a large extent, most of the candidates will be introducing themselves to the public, while also trying to land punches against rivals on the stage, Donald Trump and Joe Biden. It’s like playing Twister on national TV.
Whatever the size of the audience tonight, I have a handy way to gauge who made the strongest impression.
That would be the person whose clips are replayed most often over the following 24 to 48 hours. And if there’s a media consensus that so-and-so had the best night–which is unusual–that has an impact that grows over time.
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In the first fall debate of 2012, there was wide agreement that Mitt Romney had bested Barack Obama. After two days of punditry, that view hardened into Romney wiping the floors with the Democratic president.
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Outright victory may be elusive, but the media always need a good story line.
