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Thursday Thoughts – Correction Complete or Halfway There?

" We've got to hold on to what we've got It doesn't make a difference if we make it or not Woah, we're half way there Woah, livin' on a prayer " – Bon Jovi We're at a critical inflection point in the market. The S&P 500, as you can see, has fallen back from 4,800 to 4.560 (a bit lower now) but that's only a 5% correction while the Nasdaq has fallen closer to our predicted 10% (15,000 was our goal) and the Russell has fallen from 2.400 back to 2,065 and that's 14% and no one cares what the Dow does as it's a ridiculous, price-weighted index whose movements are meaningless (yet followed closely by most of the World). As for the Dow, it is down from 36,500 to 35,000, which is 4% so I'm fairly certain we'll be seeing the rest of that 5% drop before we're through and, more likely, a full 10% drop is ahead of us – all the way back to 32,850, which is where we were in March of last year.  The Russell is 200 points BELOW where we were last March – so perhaps it's the canary in the coal mine for all of the indexes. The Russell below 2,100 is BAD – there's no doubting that and, if it persists, we can expect the other indexes to turn BAD as well.  The Russell ran up from 1,600 in November of 2020 (where it had fully recovered to 2019 highs) to 2,400 without even pausing at 2,000 to pretend to consolidate – that's why it's so weak up here.  That 800-point run has 160-point pullbacks at 2,240 (weak retrace), 2,080 (strong retrace), 1,920 (strong bounce) and 1,760 (weak bounce) – so there's no support at 2,000 other than psychological so, if that breaks – expect a quick dive back to 1,920, at least.     IN PROGRESS    

"We've got to hold on to what we've got
It doesn't make a difference if we make it or not
Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer" – Bon JoviWe're at a critical inflection point in the market.The S&P 500, as you can see, has fallen back from 4,800 to 4.560 (a bit lower now) but that's only a 5% correction while the Nasdaq has fallen closer to our predicted 10% (15,000 was our goal) and the Russell has fallen from 2.400 back to 2,065 and that's 14% and no one cares what the Dow does as it's a ridiculous, price-weighted index whose movements are meaningless (yet followed closely by most of the World). As for the Dow, it is down from 36,500 to 35,000, which is 4% so I'm fairly certain we'll be seeing the rest of that 5% drop before we're through and, more likely, a full 10% drop is ahead of us – all the way back to 32,850, which is where we were in March of last year.  The Russell is 200 points BELOW where we were last March – so perhaps it's the canary in the coal mine for all of the indexes. The Russell below 2,100 is BAD – there's no doubting that and, if it persists, we can expect the other indexes to turn BAD as well.  The Russell ran up from 1,600 in November of 2020 (where it had fully recovered to 2019 highs) to 2,400 without even pausing at 2,000 to pretend to consolidate – that's why it's so weak up here.  That 800-point run has 160-point pullbacks at 2,240 (weak retrace), 2,080 (strong retrace), 1,920 (strong bounce) and 1,760 (weak bounce) – so there's no support at 2,000 other than psychological so, if that breaks – expect a quick dive back to 1,920, at least.     IN PROGRESS    
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