Kobby Barda's new research on 2020 US election checks for impact of race and stature in voting pattern
Sgula, Dec 18, 2020 (Issuewire.com) - Kobby Barda, head of the Gal Program" for communal leadership at the Academic Center for Law and Science, Hod-Hasharon, Israel, has launched a new research into the just-concluded 2020 US elections to determine if voting were a reflection of race or social status.
This research examined voting patterns in US presidential election campaigns in 2016 and 2020 and compared racial voting patterns to voting patterns based on stature. The hypothesis that racial voting would act against President Trump was refuted.
The findings found in this research can be the start of a large voting shift in the United States, like the one started by President Roosevelt in 1932.
The accepted working assumption on the eve of the 2020 Presidential Election in the US was that the image of President Trump, as well as the perception that he holds negative opinions regarding immigrants and immigration while supported by white supremacists, would result in voters casting their ballot based on racial or ethnic considerations to vote against him .
Kobby Barda's research was aimed at examining that linkage, to see if it took place, or rather if voting needs to be looked at as a choice made based on class and stature, not racial background.
To examine the issue at hand, 2016 voting patterns were compared to 2020 exit polls based on racial background. The findings showed that support for President Trump rose across all races, sometimes more than doubling. At the same time, votes were analyzed based on a breakdown by class. For the study, three batches of districts were chosen: the poor of America, the average of America, and the rich of America. One district was chosen from each state, and a total of 147 districts from across the US were looked at. The research shows that as one climbs the social ladder, support for President Trump declines or, in the context of this paper: the lower one is on the social class ladder, especially among the 'forgotten' periphery, the higher the approval and support rate of President Trump is.
Ethnicity: The results show an increase in support for Trump across all ethnicity in the US during the 2020 election compared to 2016: Muslims +337%; Indian +75%; Asian +66.7%; African American +50%, Latino/Hispanic +14.29%; White +7.41%.
Social Class: The results show a different voting pattern based on social classes across the US:
- Rich America - 41 of the 49 richest counties saw Trump lose support.
- Average American - 15 counties saw a decline in support, one had no change, and Trump's support increased in 33 of the 49 counties.
- Poor America - 40 of the 49 poorest counties saw Trump gain support, while he lost support in six counties and two remained unchanged.
"In this research, which included gathering and sorting data based on social classes in the US,
it was possible to see the clear difference in support as one climbed the social ladder,
including the changes between 2016 and 2020" said study author Kobby Barda scholar of
CHIKIN CHAIR. The results from the new study titled: "How Did Donald Trump Turn the Republican Party into the People's Party?" appear in THE CHAIKIN CHAIR IN GEO STRATEGY of the UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA, ISRAEL, and can be found translated to English at Cambridge Core: http://bit.ly/2LyemJk
The author of this research, Kobby Barda is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Haifa, Israel, and the recipient of the Chaikin Chair for Geostrategy Scholarship. His research focuses on the history of American politics: his dissertation examines the establishment of the Evangelical Lobby for Israel - US relations, while his Masters' thesis was a book on the forming of AIPAC.
Source :Kobby Barda
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