Are we at the top of our range or about to break higher? Our lower breakout on the Dow has been 10,250 and that has held up very well for the past few weeks so we have to respect that but, at the same time, we seem very overbought and just needing some sort of correction to help us confirm the bottom of the channel is still supporting us ( see Fallond chart ).  The other levels we were looking for in Monday’s post were : S&P 1,100 (check) , Nasdaq 2,187 (2,175) , NYSE 7,200 (7,212) and Russell 600 (589).  As I said on Monday: " If we don’t get 3 of 5 of our indexes over, then there’s not going to be anything to get bullish about ."  Unfortunately, we didn’t like the way we got there yesterday so we stayed bearish (60%) into the close but we sure are ready to run with the bulls by slapping on a couple of DIA covers and using 10,500 as our on/off switch to play the upside (which should coincide with the Nas and Rut breakouts).  As I noted to Members in yesterday’s 9:43 Alert , our prior market tops were Dow 10,495, S&P 1,113, Nas 2,205, NYSE 7,266 and Russell 605 so there is no excuse for any of our indexes not to make the grade if we’re really heading higher.  Today’s fly in the ointment may be oil inventories at 10:30, as holiday driving and flying numbers were not that great so the anticipated drawdown of about 2M barrels may turn out to be a build, especially in gasoline as many families had subdued Thanksgivings at home this year (thankful to be employed, thankful to have 70% of their IRA left, thankful their house only lost 20% of it’s value, thankful gas is still under $3…), which does not bode well for Christmas either.  Fundamentally, we think the economy still has serious issues and that the market is delusional at these levels but we don’t fight the Fed or the big technicals so IF we do make our levels, THEN we will be some very reluctant bulls but bulls we will be .  I have, for quite some time, been saying this is very much like 1999 and we do expect a big sell-off in the near future as reality begins to take it’s toll on the market but, in December of 1999,  the Dow went from 11,000 to 11,500 on the 31st before giving it all back…