e425
Filed by Inco Limited
Pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act of 1933
Subject Company: Falconbridge Limited
Commission File No. 1-11284
Inco Limited Commission File No. 1-1143
Inco Limited
Pre-announcement of Q2/06 Results and Nickel Market Update
8:30 a.m., June 22, 2006-06
Toronto
Sandra Scott
Good morning and thanks for joining us on this call, which is being webcast on a live, listen-only
basis. A news release was issued this morning and can be obtained at www.inco.com, or by calling
investor relations at (416) 361-7670. Following this conference call, a PDF version of the remarks
and related slides will be available through a link on Incos homepage.
Ill begin with a few housekeeping items.
First, we are including members of the public and news media on this webcast on a live, listen-only
basis. After completing our formal comments, we will take questions initially from investors and
analysts on the conference call.
The second item is the compliance statements on our ore reserve estimates.
Third, all dollar amounts are in U.S. currency unless otherwise stated.
Given recent changes in Canadian securities legislation, I should make a few additional points:
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Actual results could differ materially from the 2006 outlook and other
forward-looking statements we make; |
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Certain material assumptions were made in developing our 2006 outlook and other
forward-looking statements; |
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We have filed the text and slides used in this presentation with the SEC and on
SEDAR in Canada; |
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Our filings with the SEC and on SEDAR contain additional information on the
material factors, risks and assumptions that could cause results to differ
materially from our forward-looking information or statements, and were used in
developing our forecast or projections. |
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Joining me at our Toronto office are Incos Chairman and CEO, Scott Hand; our Executive Vice
President of Marketing, Peter Goudie; and other members of our management team.
Now Ill turn the call over to Scott Hand.
Scott Hand
Good morning. As you all understand very well, its not exactly `business as usual at Inco these
days.
In the coming weeks our shareholders, as well as Falconbridge shareholders, will be facing some big
decisions that in all likelihood will determine the future of our two companies and potentially
reshape the landscape of the base metals mining industry.
With so much on the line, we believe it is critical that you make those choices armed with the most
complete and up-to-date information we can provide about our business. This is especially important
when so many metals analysts are restricted in their ability to provide ongoing commentary to the
market, because their firms are acting as advisors to one of the parties involved in these
transactions.
Weve kept our focus squarely on facts and fundamentals throughout this process and facts and
fundamentals are what we plan to focus on today. Well address Incos great prospects, as our
operational and growth choices, plus market forces, propel us to a very strong finish for 2006.
Well highlight exploration that will underpin future success. And our nickel market guru, Peter
Goudie, will explain why we believe that nickels fundamentals far outshine those of most, if not
all, other commodities. Peter will tell you why we anticipate that nickel will remain much more
robust than many people think.
But first, Ill take you through our Q2 results pre-announcement and some other key drivers of
Incos performance.
We currently expect to meet or exceed our April Q2 guidance for nickel, copper and PGM production.
The rapid increase in the LME cash nickel price will result in about a $0.10 a pound discount to
LME prices during Q2 but bolster our Q3 results. Using quarter-to-date per pound prices of $9.01
for nickel and $3.31 for copper, Q2 unit cash cost of sales, after by-product credits, should be
$1.90-to-$1.95 a pound, about 25% below our previous guidance of $2.50-to-$2.55 a pound; this is
largely due to higher prices for by-products. At quarter-to-date commodity prices, we currently
expect to achieve adjusted Q2/06 earnings of
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about $1.70-to-$1.75 per share on a fully-diluted basis 21% above the current First Call
estimate of $1.43 per share, 92% above the adjusted diluted Q1/06 EPS and 60% above the adjusted
diluted Q2/05 EPS. This will be our highest quarterly net earnings on record. Not included in these
estimated results is the sale of about 33,000 wet metric tonnes of Voiseys Bay copper concentrate
accumulated during the winter that is currently scheduled to be shipped at the end of June but more
likely will not be moved until early July, due to the late arrival of the vessel at Edwards Cove.
If these planned sales were to be included in results for Q2 2006, it would increase net earnings
by $0.08 per share diluted and reduce nickel unit cash cost of sales after by-product credits by
$0.29 cents per pound. Well expand on this when we issue our final results on July 25th.
We currently expect to meet or beat our April copper and PGM output estimates for 2006. We are
raising our nickel output guidance for the year by 10 million pounds to 575 million pounds. Our
premium guidance of $0.05-to-$0.10 a pound moves to zero-to-$0.05 a pound. And we are cutting our
2006 unit cash cost guidance by 15%, from $2.35-to-$2.40 a pound to $2.00-to-$2.05 a pound, after
by-product credits, using the 2006 consensus commodity estimates for nickel of $7.34 a pound and
for copper of $2.51 a pound. Remember, the year-to-date nickel price is $7.78 a pound and nickel is
currently trading at $9.45 a pound. The year-to-date copper price is $2.73 a pound and copper is
currently trading above $3 a pound. These realized prices are all higher than analyst consensus
price estimates. Our copper sales were 29% hedged in the first half, capping price realization at
$1.54 per pound, but we have no second half copper hedges. Year-to-date, copper is $2.73 a pound,
so the elimination of this hedge book is expected to reduce our cash cost of sales in the second
half.
In 2005, we were at the low end of the Brook Hunt cost curve. Productivity and Voiseys Bays
should improve this in 2006. We believe that were the only publicly traded mining company whose
costs will fall this year in absolute terms, despite oil prices and currency levels. In the second
half, using the Q2-to-date commodity price for copper of $3.31 a pound, we currently expect that
our overall nickel unit cash cost of sales, after by-product credits, will be about $1.30-to-$1.35
a pound; 40% below our first half cost guidance of $2.25-to-$2.30 a pound, due to a sharp drop in
our use of high-cost external feeds. Our second half 2006 cash costs are very levered to copper
prices. For every $0.10 a pound increase in the price of copper our H2/06 unit cash costs should
drop by about $0.07 a pound. On the screen you will see what our H2/06 unit cash costs would be
using a range of copper prices.
Voiseys Bay will mean higher second half output and cash flow. We currently expect to produce
295-to-300 million pounds of nickel, versus 275-to-280 million pounds in the first half of 2006. We
expect to get 177 million pounds or 52% of our copper output in the second half and, with mining
sequencing, 57% of our PGM output should take place then. Based on our current production guidance
and at year-to-date per pound commodity prices of $7.77 for nickel and $2.73 for
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copper, Inco would generate 2006 cash flow of about $1.9 billion, or $8.40 per share at these
expected production levels.
The Voiseys Bay mill reached 80% capacity in just months, following the start of production so
for 2006 we currently expect to produce about 120 million pounds of low-cost, high-grade nickel in
concentrate from the mill. We also expect to process about 83 million pounds of that production
into finished nickel at Sudbury and Thompson this year. Sudburys finished nickel output is on
course to be the best that it has achieved in 25 years. We expect that our carbonyl refineries
should run at peak capacities and that Thompson should have record output. In Canada, we expect to
enjoy lower unit cash cost of sales and superior profitability.
In Sudbury, nickel/copper separation should capture 30% of copper in feed as of Q4, raising nickel
through the smelter. Our converter upgrade should cut sulphur emissions and let us raise processing
rates at least 2%. The converter, our new oxygen plant and a fluid bed roaster installation should
improve operations.
We expect record throughput levels in Ontario this year and nickel output of 258 million pounds.
Weve gone to a single furnace in Manitoba and, with Voiseys Bay feed, we expect 2006 finished
nickel output of 120 million pounds from Manitoba.
Buying Falconbridge will create synergies available only to our two companies. Within 24 months of the closing, we expect to get about $550 million in average annual pre-tax
run-rate operating and corporate synergies. Using a 7% discount rate, these would have an estimated
net present value of $3.5 billion after tax, or about $9.20 per share of the New Inco with lots
of upside potential.
Plans at Clarabelle Mill to separate 30% of the copper in bulk nickel-copper feed should raise
output 15% and enable more nickel processing.
The New Inco expects to raise Canadian nickel and copper output about 100 million pounds for each
metal by 2009, and platinum group metals by about 111,000 ounces. Boosting nickel-copper separation
to 70% in the future would add more nickel output, improve productivity and further lower costs
across our operations.
Inco has one of the best contained nickel in ore reserves and mineral resources; exploration
results announced this week could add much to our asset base. At Voiseys Bays Reid Brook Zone,
Ontarios Copper Cliff South and Creighton mines, and Manitobas Thompson 1-D Mine, weve found
high grade deposits that enhance our efforts to raise nickel output and accelerate cash flow or
extend mine life. We believe that these discoveries and our international projects pipeline reflect
substantial unrecognized value within Inco.
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Voiseys Bays potential for long-life, high-grade operations underground is evident in Reid Brook,
which well consider as a standalone operation. The ore is closer to the surface than we previously
thought and the deposit is still open.
Inco is profitably growing its leadership position and we expect to generate the industrys most
efficient, low-cost output increases. Thats good news for our stakeholders and for the world,
which needs all the nickel it can get. Now Ill call on Peter Goudie.
Peter Goudie
Most said I was too bullish, now I admit to being too cautious.
In the April conference call, I stated that 2006 began more strongly than we had anticipated and
prices had to rise to a new level: and I gave a new market forecast. Today I am here to tell you
that the market has continued to outpace our expectations. We are increasing our 2006 global nickel
market deficit projection to 30,000 tonnes. Once again we stand in a place where we have little
company, but I believe we are taking a realistic view of this remarkable market. A 30,000-tonne
deficit in a market with very little inventory is a significant development.
Moreover, beyond 2006, we continue to expect that that the nickel market will be very tight for
several years as demand is expected to outstrip limited supply growth. The nickel market story is
very straightforward, and has not changed. The nickel market is, as I said on April 20, basically
about fundamentals nothing more, nothing less; the story is now unfolding even faster than I had
anticipated.
In our April call, we forecast a full year global nickel market deficit of between 5,000 and 20,000
tonnes. With only seven business days to go in the first half of 2006, LME nickel stocks have
already fallen over 22,000 tonnes. Along with a continuous drawdown of nickel stocks off the LME,
the level of cancelled warrants is also near record highs, indicating that more than 5,000 tonnes
of nickel is expected to be removed from LME warehouses in the short term. There are not any
significant stocks of nickel; available stocks to meet demand are falling. There is no Russian
situation to change the market suddenly like in the early 90s. This market is tight.
The key question is whether this demand strength will continue through the second half. We all know
that demand came off strongly in the second half of 2005 and so what makes 2006 different? Given
the strength in the fundamentals, I believe that the tight nickel market will continue. As you
know, I have my opinions, but I will present my top 10 facts that support a strong second half of
2006:
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The industrial production leading indicator is currently rising, not falling as it
was this time last year. |
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Stainless steel inventories are at low levels globally and restocking is taking
longer than the mills anticipated, due to strong steel demand. |
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Throughout the first half, stainless steel mills have announced price increases and
customers accepted them, whereas last year prices were falling. |
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Stainless steel mills have strong order books, and appear to be well booked past the
third quarter. As a result, lead times for stainless steel have increased in all regions. |
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In the first half, stainless steel production across all regions was stronger than we
anticipated and we are raising our production forecast for the remainder of the year. This
time last year, production cuts were being announced. |
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In some areas, scrap prices have increased to as high as 99% of the LME cash price,
as scrap supply becomes very tight. |
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LME and producers nickel inventories are falling rather than rising, as they did
last year. |
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Enquiries from customers for nickel, and the nickel premiums being paid, give a clear
indication of the tightness and strength of the market. |
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Non-stainless steel demand growth continues to be strong, as we have described in
past calls. |
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Reported nickel production and forecasts for the year have declined. |
Let me now give you more detail on my top 10.
1. Solid economic growth is forecast for the remainder of 2006 and also 2007. We believe that
global industrial activity will continue above trend. The OECD leading indicators, released earlier
this month, signal a continuing positive outlook for the OECD area. The six-month rate of change,
which predicts turning points in economic activity some six months ahead, rose for the 12th
consecutive month in April, and the leading indicators published by the OECD for China and India
are continuing to rise strongly. In contrast, at this time last year, the industrial production
leading indicator had been falling.
Industrial production in the OECD area is currently in the 3.5-to-4% range year-over-year, compared
to about 1-to-2% in mid-2005. Chinese industrial production continues to be very strong, with
forecasts as of June near 16% growth for 2006 and 14.6% in 2007. In addition, we believe that the
U.S. economy is slowing from a high rate of growth to a more sustainable pace, with industrial
production in the 3.5-to-4.2% range this year and next.
Industrial production growth for the G-7 plus key economies of Asia is now forecast to be 6.7% in
2006 and 6.0% in 2007.
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This environment will continue to provide a solid, broad-based underpinning for nickel demand. As
Ive said many times, industrial production growth drives nickel demand.
2. Stainless steel stocks are currently low as a result of the drawdown in late 2005. Stainless
steel demand has been very strong in the first half of 2006, causing restocking to take longer than
expected. This is occurring globally. European stockist inventories are at low levels. The U.S.
service center inventory data shows inventory as of April at 3.93 months versus 4.82 months in
April 2005. Actual inventory in the U.S. is down 135,000 tonnes from the peak in 2005. In Japan,
stainless steel inventories are falling. March inventory is only 1.0 months sales, down from 1.17
in February and down from a peak of 1.37 months in August 2005. Inventories are also low in China,
Taiwan and Korea. Chinese stockist stainless steel inventories in May are down by 30% from the same
time last year.
3. Stainless steel prices are still moving higher and major stainless steel mills continue to
announce price increases. For example, Japanese stainless steel mills have announced their sixth
consecutive monthly price rise. Prices in key markets are up 40% for the first half of 2006 and
rising, whereas last year for the same period, prices had fallen by 8% and were still dropping.
Price increases continue to be accepted. In comparison, in 2005 when we had second half weakness,
there were no base price increases in the U.S. for the entire year. The fact that the stainless
steel mills are raising prices and the increases are being accepted clearly shows the
strength of stainless steel demand.
4. Stainless steel demand has exceeded our expectations. In Germany, stainless steel orders are up
56.5% May year-to-date. In the US, service centre shipments are up 5% year-to-date. In the first
quarter, Japanese stainless steel orders were up 14% quarter-over-quarter, and were also 7% higher
than in the first quarter last year. With rising demand and low inventories in the supply chain,
lead times for stainless steel have increased in all regions by up to six weeks, compared to June
2005. Within the past few weeks, I have personally visited, and had discussions with, eight major
stainless steel producers in Taiwan, China and Japan their outlook was very positive on the
demand for stainless steel and their expected production rates.
5. In the first half of 2006, stainless steel production across all regions was stronger than we
anticipated. The second quarter was the third consecutive quarter of melted output increases. In
Europe, mills are continuing to melt at high rates, with the output from the top four countries up
4% April year-to-date. The Chinese mill output continues to increase, with April up 29%
year-over-year, and year-to-date up 26%. In Taiwan, May output is up 13% year-over-year, and 4%
year-to-date. U.S. stainless steel production rose 6% year-over-year in April, and year-to-date is
up 5%. Accordingly, we have increased our 2006 U.S. stainless steel forecast by 133,000 tonnes.
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Stainless steel production is expected to be very strong, not just in the U.S., but also globally
for the remainder of the year. Therefore we have increased our stainless steel production growth
forecast to 10%, up from our 8.2% forecast at the time of the April call. This new increase is in
addition to the growth already forecast in China, based on the three million tonnes of new
stainless steel capacity in the second half of 2006.
6. Market data indicates that scrap remains very tight. Chinese and Korean scrap imports are down
year-to-date April by 7% and 3%, respectively. The tightness in scrap can be seen in the very high
May prices compared to last year. May 2006 scrap prices were 99.7% of LME cash in the U.S.,
compared to 87.2% last May. In Europe, scrap prices were 98.8% compared to 91.6% last year. Scrap
is tight, which equals stronger demand for primary nickel.
7. Nickel inventory at the LME and producers is falling rather than rising as it did last year and
is now at 4.1 weeks of demand. LME nickel stocks have decreased by over 62% year-to-date. Along
with a continuous drawdown of nickel stocks off the LME, the level of cancelled warrants is at 36%,
which is near record highs.
Where is all this nickel going? One key area where nickel demand has exceeded our expectations in
the first half is the U.S. Actual U.S. nickel demand through April has exceeded our forecast by
6,000 tonnes. As of April, nickel demand in the U.S. is up 10% year-over-year and is increasing.
Demand is based on broad strength in both non-stainless and stainless steel markets.
8. Enquiries from customers for nickel and the nickel premiums being paid give us a clear
indication of the tightness and strength of the market. From discussions with our stainless steel
customers and their enquiries about getting more nickel over the balance of the year, we have
confirmed the market strength firsthand.
9. In non-stainless markets, we are seeing a continuation of the message we have discussed in
previous conference calls. Demand has been strong from the high nickel alloy market in the U.S. and
Europe, primarily driven by strength from the aerospace sector. Other applications expected to
create strong nickel demand include land-based gas turbines, the oil industry, nuclear plants, LNG
ships, and environmental equipment such as flue gas scrubbers. It is true that the prices are
hitting the plating market hard and there has been a significant fall in demand for nickel for
decorative plating, but demand continues to increase for functional plating. For most of the
plating market, the volatility in nickel prices is more difficult to manage, rather than the price
itself. The supply chain is already adjusting to new pricing levels. We have always said there must
be substitution to force demand in line with supply and we have always said decorative plating
would be one of the first applications to be hit, so this is not a surprise. The market works and
prices have to rise to adjust demand to supply.
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10. On the supply side, nickel producers have been running at capacity to meet the strong demand I
have just described. A high nickel price encourages producers to operate at or above capacity, and
this creates a very high risk of supply disruptions. Producers have no margin for disruptions and
have no way to make up shortfalls. As data is coming in from producers, these concerns are proving
to be justified, resulting in a downward adjustment to our forecast for 2006 of 5,000 tonnes to
1,334,000 tonnes. The risk of further disruptions remains high while producers continue to maximize
production. Also importantly, it is clear, based on enquiries from customers, that all producers
have low inventories and are finding it difficult to supply all customer needs on time. This also
explains the drawdown of LME stocks.
Based on my top 10 facts, our new global supply/demand balance forecast for 2006 is a deficit of
30,000 tonnes. The deficit cannot be any larger, as effectively all available nickel will be
utilized. Again, prices will have to rise to keep demand in line with available supply. This means
the market will be very tight in 2006, with constraints on demand growth creating the type of
conditions that lead to high prices and high volatility.
In my view, 2006 is not a spike, it is the result of the lack of new major nickel projects for a
number of years and the exciting growth in nickel demand, especially in China, with India to
follow. Strong nickel demand growth will result from strong global industrial production growth.
Demand is expected to continue to outstrip supply, resulting in supply/demand deficits beyond 2006;
and lasting for the next several years.
It takes a number of years to bring on significant new nickel supply. In order to meet the expected
underlying demand for nickel, the market would need a Goro-sized project every year. Even if a new
surprise project was announced today, the nickel would be unlikely to hit the market until after
2010. New nickel projects are proving increasingly difficult to bring on, with very high capital
costs; complex permitting requirements; often challenging technology as the industry moves into
lower grade laterite deposits; and frequently, locations in countries where the business and
political issues are challenging. We believe that the new economics of nickel projects are such
that nickel must be significantly above the average prices seen in the past in order for these
projects to be commercially viable. The impact of China makes this situation even more extreme. In
the last period of strong global industrial production growth driven by Japan from 1960 to 1974
world nickel demand growth averaged over 7% per year. This demand growth is well above the
forecast supply growth. The market will therefore either be in deficit or in a tight balance
through 2010 and likely beyond. A market in surplus is quite unlikely in this timeframe.
With a market in deficit, substitution will be a factor. However, nickels excellent properties
make it hard to substitute and still achieve the same benefits. Last year many end users who had
switched from higher nickel-containing austenitic stainless steel grades to lower nickel-containing
austenitic grades, specifically
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200 series, discovered that the corrosion properties were not good enough. These users are
returning to grades with higher nickel content. Furthermore, an increased switch to ferritic
grades, which contain no nickel, has not been seen in the market. In fact, the use of austenitic
grades is rising in key markets. In the most recent data from Germany, ferritic grades are down
6.9% April year-to-date, while austenitic grades have increased. In the U.S., the austenitic ratio
climbed to 67.6% in the first quarter, up from 62.5% in the third quarter last year. In Japan, the
use of nickel containing grades is also rising and stood at 64.4% as of April.
Although nickel is hard to substitute, we have consistently said that substitution must occur to
bring demand in line with limited supply. We have seen this in the decorative plating market.
Please do not misread the substitution process when it occurs: it is not a sign of weakness, it
is a sign that the market works.
In February, I told you: Do not rely on gut instincts to guide you. Mark my words your gut has
never been here before.
In April I said: This nickel market is about fundamentals. The fundamentals are real and they are
strong. And I added: It will also require a more substantial increase in nickel prices, or a more
sustained period at current price levels, to achieve the substitution required to bring demand in
line with supply.
And in all the conference calls for the past couple of years, I have told you to expect volatility.
I believe all of these statements remain true.
Today, the nickel market is in a fundamentally stronger position than at the same time last year. I
believe that we will NOT see a repeat of the destocking that occurred in 2005.
I will close with three facts and three opinions.
FACT 1: Tightness of supply resulted in the need for a net drawdown of 20,000 tonnes from the LME,
as consumers search for nickel.
FACT 2: There are less than 14,000 tonnes of nickel left on the LME; less than 9,000 tonnes after
cancelled warrants. Both producers and consumers have low inventories.
FACT 3: Current demand growth is strong and near-term and medium-term supply growth appears
limited.
OPINION 1: I will say, once more, what Ive been saying for more than three years: prices will
have to once again rise to bring underlying demand growth in line with supply.
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OPINION 2: In 2006 we will see a deficit of 30,000 tonnes, removing all available inventory.
OPINION 3: The outlook through at least 2010 is one of insufficient nickel to meet underlying
demand.
I wish you good luck in forming your opinions on this remarkable and exciting market. I hope to
read that you have joined me so I am not so lonely.
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Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and forward-looking information
within the meaning of certain securities laws, including the safe harbour provisions of the
Securities Act (Ontario) and the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
that are based on expectations, estimates and projections as of the date of the presentation. These
statements include, among others, statements concerning our beliefs, forecasts, plans, objectives,
expectations, estimates and intentions. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and
uncertainties which give rise to the possibility that the predictions or projections expressed in
such statements will not be achieved. We caution listeners not to place undue reliance upon these
statements as a number of factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those
expressed in such forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, any
material deviation from the material assumptions identified below, as well as the risks and factors
described in the Companys Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005, filed
with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and each of the Canadian securities regulatory
authorities, as well as in the Companys other public filings.
Forward-looking statements are given only as of the date of this presentation. The company
disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of
new information, future events or otherwise, or to explain any material difference between
subsequent actual events and such forward-looking statements.
Material Assumptions
These forward-looking statements are based on a number of assumptions which may prove to be
incorrect, including but not limited to the various assumptions set forth in Incos Annual Report
on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005 as well as: (1) there being no significant
disruptions affecting operations, whether due to labour disruptions, supply disruptions, damage to
equipment or otherwise during the balance of 2006; (2) continued ramp-up of construction activities
at Goro on a basis consistent with Incos current expectations; (3) there being no significant
asset impairments for the remainder of 2006; (4) no redemption of convertible debt or LYONs for
cash taking place for the remainder of 2006; (5) enactment of the announced 2006 Canadian federal
budget measures affecting future income tax rates; (6) that the exchange rate between the Canadian
dollar and the U.S. dollar will be approximately consistent with current levels; (7) certain
commodity price assumptions for nickel, copper and other products produced by Inco; (8) production
rates at PT International Nickel Indonesia Tbd (PT Inco) being consistent with the press release
dated May 29, 2006 relating to a transformer fire; (9) prices for natural gas, fuel oil,
electricity and other key supplies remaining consistent with current levels; (10) continued
effectiveness of the Companys current hedging program for metal and currency prices; (11)
assumptions as to the continued capitalization of transaction costs associated with our pending
acquisition of Falconbridge; (12) productivity results for the balance of the second quarter of
2006 as well as the balance of 2006; (13) the accuracy of Incos current ore reserve and mineral
resource estimates; (14) the accuracy of the level of estimated average annual pre-tax run-rate
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operating and corporate synergies to be realized in respect of a combination of Inco and
Falconbridge, as well as the net present value on an after-tax basis of those synergies; (15)
global nickel demand growth rates of 6% between 2006 and 2010, and that no significant new
announcements are made regarding an increase in the supply of nickel over the same period; (16)
that there are no significant stockpiles of nickel or stainless steel scrap that are not already
public knowledge; (17) that the Chinese per capita demand for nickel will grow to 9 kilograms per
capita per year by 2009, consistent with Japan, Korea and Taiwan at equivalent phases of their
historical industrialization; (18) that stainless steel inventories will continue to be low
throughout 2006, with continued strong demand from stainless steel mills in China and elsewhere;
(19) that 3 million tonnes of new Chinese stainless steel capacity will start up in the second
half of 2006; (20) that global industrial production in the G7 countries plus Asia will remain
above the long-term average through 2010 and industrial production growth in China will remain at
10-15% through 2010; and (21) no new technological or metallurgical developments in stainless
steel, superalloys or plating which result in the substitution of nickel by other materials. Some
of the material assumptions made by Inco involve confidential or particularly sensitive information
and, accordingly, Inco does not believe it is appropriate to disclose such assumptions for
competitive or other business reasons.
Important Legal Information
This presentation may be deemed to be solicitation material in respect of Incos proposed
combination with Falconbridge. Inco filed with the SEC, on October 24, 2005, a registration
statement on Form F-8 (containing an offer to purchase and a share exchange take-over bid circular)
and has filed amendments thereto, and will file further amendments thereto as required, in
connection with the proposed combination. Inco has also filed, and will file (if required), other
documents with the SEC in connection with the proposed combination. Falconbridge has filed a
Schedule 14D-9F in connection with Incos offer and has filed, and will file (if required), other
documents regarding the proposed combination, in each case with the SEC.
INVESTORS AND SECURITY HOLDERS ARE URGED TO READ THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT AND ANY OTHER RELEVANT
DOCUMENTS FILED OR THAT WILL BE FILED WITH THE CANADIAN SECURITIES REGULATORS OR THE SEC WHEN THEY
BECOME AVAILABLE BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION.
INVESTORS AND SECURITYHOLDERS ARE URGED TO READ INCOS DIRECTORS CIRCULAR DATED MAY 29, 2006 FILED
WITH THE CANADIAN SECURITIES COMMISSIONS AND MAILED TO INCOS SHAREHOLDERS, AND ITS
SOLICITATION/RECOMMENDATION STATEMENT ON SCHEDULE 14D-9 THAT INCO FILED WITH THE U.S. SECURITIES
AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (THE SEC) ON MAY 31, 2006, AND ANY AMENDMENTS INCO MAY FILE THERETO, AS
IT CONTAINS, AND SUCH AMENDMENTS IF ANY, WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION.
Investors and security holders may obtain copies of the Directors Circular, the registration
statement, the Solicitation/Recommendation Statement and Incos and Falconbridges other public
filings made from time to time by Inco and Falconbridge with the Canadian Securities Regulators, at
www.sedar.com, and the SEC free of charge at the SECs web site, www.sec.gov.
14
In addition, documents filed with the Canadian and U.S. regulators by Inco may be obtained free of
charge by contacting Incos media or investor relations departments.
In accordance with applicable Canadian securities regulatory requirements, including National
Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mining Projects, Mr. S. Nicholas Sheard,
Vice-President of Exploration, Dr. Olivier Tavchandjian, Principal Geologist, Mineral Reserves and
Mineral Resources, and Dr. Lawrence B. Cochrane, Director of Mines Exploration, each as a qualified
person within the meaning of such National Instrument, indirectly supervised the preparation of
Incos ore reserves and mineral resource estimates as of December 31, 2005 and each has, in
accordance with the requirements of NI 43-101, conducted either directly by himself or indirectly
through employees of Inco reporting directly or indirectly to him, a comprehensive review and
confirmation of the application of the detailed procedures, systems and processes the Company has
developed and implemented for the purpose of verifying such data. Each of Mr. Sheard, Dr.
Tavchandjian and Dr. Cochrane, as well as the responsible persons described in the notes of the
Incos 2005 Annual Report to Inco Shareholders and in the notes Incos Annual Report on Form 10-K
for year ended December 31, 2005 also periodically check the adequacy of such procedures, systems
and processes which are intended to provide sufficient verification of such data based upon
recognized sampling, analytical testing, modeling and other procedures in the mining industry.
Cautionary note to U.S. and other investors This document uses the terms measured,
indicated and inferred mineral resources. We advise U.S. and other investors that while
these terms are recognized and required by Canadian regulations, the SEC does not recognize them.
U.S. and other investors are cautioned not to assume that any part or all of the measured,
indicated or inferred mineral resources will ever be converted into ore reserves. Inferred
mineral resources have a great amount of uncertainty as to their existence, and great uncertainty
as to their economic and legal feasibility. It cannot be assumed that all or any part of an
inferred mineral resource will ever be upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian rules,
estimates of inferred mineral resources may not form the basis of feasibility or other economic
studies, except in special cases. U.S. investors are cautioned not to assume that part or all of an
inferred mineral resource exists or is economically or legally mineable. While the SEC permits
registered U.S. mining companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only those mineral
deposits that a company can economically and legally extract or produce at the time of the reserve
determination, it does permit Canadian companies such as Inco to disclose information about their
mineral resources in their filings with the SEC in accordance with Canadian regulatory
requirements. U.S. and other investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Annual
Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005, File No. 1-1143, which may be secured
from us, or from the SECs website at www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml.