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Updated: 4:15 PM EST, Dec 20, 2024
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Rates Spark: 50bp Brewing For May
March 17, 2022
Central banks stay in focus. Today's main event of course is the Bank of England very likely delivering its third hike of the current cycle.
Via
Talk Markets
Odd Curve Shapes, Or More Chinese Than Russian
March 10, 2022
The yield curve really does behave like two different curves (because it sort of is) at most times, this is taking things to another level.
Via
Talk Markets
Weekly Market Pulse: Well, That Was A Surprise
February 28, 2022
A widely diversified portfolio essentially broke even last week as positives from US stocks, real estate, and commodities were offset by losses in bonds and foreign stocks.
Via
Talk Markets
Policy Errors On Interest Rates And Energy
February 23, 2022
Last week JPMorgan forecast that the Fed will raise rates at their next nine meetings, resulting in a 2.25% hike in short-term rates by March 2023.
Via
Talk Markets
Rates Spark: An Unhappy Medium
February 22, 2022
Current rates levels reflect an unhappy medium between the two scenarios. Geopolitical tensions may dominate other drivers in the near term but, sooner or later, bonds will have to contend with the...
Via
Talk Markets
Bonds Speculators Push Their Surging Bearish Bets In Eurodollars To 166-Week High
February 20, 2022
Highlighting the COT bonds data is the continued rise in the Eurodollar bearish bets. The speculative position in the Eurodollar futures has been dropping sharply with higher bearish bets since...
Via
Talk Markets
Where Is The Treasury 10-Year Yield Headed?
February 02, 2022
One week after the January FOMC meeting, the money and bond markets are still “buzzing”.
Via
Talk Markets
What Will The Yield Curve Look Like One Year From Now?
December 27, 2021
The three-year yield is currently 0.97%. It has effectively priced in three rate hikes in 2022.
Via
Talk Markets
Is It Worth Adding Gold To Your Portfolio In 2022?
February 17, 2022
Gold prices declined in 2021 and the prospects for 2022 are not impressive as well. However, the yellow metal’s strategic relevance remains high.
Via
Talk Markets
Russia Claims “Drills” Over. Can Gold Resume Bearish Path?
February 16, 2022
With inflation and employment holding firm, there is little stopping the Fed from raising interest rates.
Via
Talk Markets
Steep Plunge In Yield Curve Spreads, Inversions And A Recession Loom
February 11, 2022
Yield spikes but spreads collapsed across the board on Thursday as the market priced in more rate hikes as well as sooner rate hikes by the Fed.
Via
Talk Markets
Despite Rising Bond Yields The Yield Curve Is Still Flattening
February 09, 2022
The flattening of the yield curve suggests trouble is ahead for the Fed before the Fed even begins hiking.
Via
Talk Markets
A Historical Note On U.S. Treasury Interest Rates And Stock Prices
January 24, 2022
There is nothing fundamental happening that justifies a major revaluation downward in stock prices for an extended period.
Via
Talk Markets
Gold (XAU/USD) Slips Lower, Rattled By Soaring U.S. Treasury Yields
January 18, 2022
US Treasury yields jumped overnight with the interest-rate sensitive 2-year printing a fresh 23-month high of 1.05%, while the benchmark 10-year hit 1.83%, a level was last seen in January 2020.
Via
Talk Markets
Fed Hawks Circle Over Gold. Will It Become Their Prey?
January 11, 2022
The imminent interest rate hike by the Fed is almost certain. Are investors' concerns justified and will it mean trouble for the precious metals?
Via
Talk Markets
Rates Spark: Still In The Driving Seat
January 11, 2022
US rates should once again set the tone in global fixed income markets. Powell’s hearing will be an opportunity to gauge the aggressiveness of the Fed’s tightening cycle, and it could see the curve...
Via
Talk Markets
Rates Spark: No Covid Rally For Bonds
January 05, 2022
In a week peppered with economic releases, issuers flocking to primary markets will be hoping for no major deviation from the numbers expected by economists.
Via
Talk Markets
Inflation Is Major Risk Factor For U.S. 2022 Economic Outlook
December 30, 2021
The future’s always uncertain and that’s not going to change when attempting to weigh the risks and opportunities for the year ahead.
Via
Talk Markets
COT Bonds Speculators Boost 2-Year Treasury Bond Futures' Bullish Bets To 185-Week High
December 19, 2021
Speculator positions have increased in 2-year bonds for the third straight week and for the ninth time out of the past 11 weeks.
Via
Talk Markets
What Is The Fed Taper? An Economist Explains
December 18, 2021
An economist explains how the Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus from the economy.
Via
Talk Markets
The Key To Our Inflation Problem Is Reducing Inflationary Expectations
December 11, 2021
The acceleration of inflation in North America during the economic recovery from the pandemic has created a set of difficult challenges for monetary policy.
Via
Talk Markets
XAU/USD Forecast: Gold Price Extends Decline As Real Yields Tick Higher
December 02, 2021
Markets have sent real yields higher (increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold) after Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the Fed’s willingness to combat inflationary pressures.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Do Treasury Yields Rise During Economic Expansions?
November 30, 2021
Comparing several maturities on the Treasury yield curve during US economic expansions since 1970 shows that rates have exploded higher – relatively speaking — since the current recovery began in May...
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Bills Flipping The Debt Ceiling
September 15, 2021
The dollar stopped falling on January 6, beginning a reversal which has lasted more than eight months. This forewarning was joined two days later when TIPS break-evens crossed, inverting the 5-year...
Via
Talk Markets
Bonds Aren't Buyin' the Bull but Semiconductors Are
August 23, 2021
Semiconductors see option activity explode to start the week as auto manufacturers look to cut production.
Via
Talk Markets
ETF, Mutual Fund Investors Inject Taxable Fixed Income Funds With $8.6 Billion in Cash
April 22, 2021
Investors were overall net purchasers of fund assets (including those of conventional funds and ETFs) for the eleventh week in 12.
Via
Talk Markets
Which of the Bonds is Unlike the Others
April 08, 2021
When it comes to the fixed income space, 2021 has been a rough year. Just about every area of the sector you look at, YTD returns have been negative.
Via
Talk Markets
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