JOHANNESBURG, South Africa – Legacy or lethargy? President Biden this week steps onto African soil for the first time in his presidency, in a visit to Angola seen by many as an attempt to leave a legacy. But China, analysts say, is threatening, through a decade of investment in Africa, to thwart the Biden administration’s aims to bring sweet memories in Africa of his time in the White House.
"The headline on Biden’s legacy in Africa is likely to be ‘over-promised and under-delivered,’" analyst Cameron Hudson told Fox News Digital. Hudson, director of African affairs at the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, and now senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Affairs, added, "Biden set high expectations that he would revamp relations with the continent, when instead his approach and results have not substantially differed from any of his predecessors."
African analyst Cobus van Staden added his thoughts: "The Biden administration's legacy in Africa is somewhat mixed." Van Staden is managing editor of the China-Global South Project, an organization that acts as a watchdog on Beijing’s actions and is a project contributor for the South African Institute of International Affairs.
"While it (Biden’s administration) contrasted with the first Trump term in upgrading the optics and rhetoric of U.S. engagement, it remains unclear how many of the announced projects will be completed. Overall, Africa was included in Biden's approach of coalition-building as a response to growing Chinese power. His term also saw the positioning of critical minerals as a key U.S. strategic priority. However, so far this hasn't translated to many gains on the African side," he said.
Speaking at a special State Department briefing on Biden’s Angola trip, Dr. Frances Brown, special assistant to the president and senior director for African affairs at the National Security Council, pushed back on criticism. Referring to the African leaders’ confab in 2022, he noted, "At that summit, we – the U.S. – pledged to invest $55 billion in Africa over three years. We are over-delivering on that thus far. Two years later, we’ve spent – we’ve invested more than 80% of that commitment."
At another briefing, senior Biden administration officials noted that over "the past two years since the Africa Leaders Summit, the administration has had over 20 Cabinet level and senior officials travel to the continent," the senior official added, "I think this administration is about the totality of those visits and those initiatives, and we're proud of our record on that front."
Brown claimed last week that "billions of dollars have been mobilized" in the Lobito Rail Corridor, a planned 800-mile railway that is central to Biden’s Angola visit – and his legacy. Brown claimed it is one of his ‘signature initiatives’.
The rail system will stretch from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and a point close to Zambia, to the port of Lobito, on Angola’s Atlantic seaboard. Washington is hoping that it can be used to transport critical raw materials (CRMs), such as cobalt and lithium, needed for the likes of electric vehicles, EV, batteries, and cut down transit time from the current 45 days to under a week.
"The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that between 2020 and 2040, demand for nickel and cobalt will increase by 20 times, for graphite 25 times, and for lithium more than 40 times," Dr. E.D. Wala Chabala wrote in a recent paper for the Africa Policy Research Institute.
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Chabala, a former chairman of Zambia Railways and an economic policy consultant, added, "This projected surge in demand for CRMs has fueled great interest in the Lobito Corridor, and with it an inevitable scramble for access. The DRC, as the world’s largest producer of cobalt (estimates are consistently around 70% of global production), has found itself at the epicenter of this scramble, as has, by association, Zambia."
But there’s a large panda in the room: China. Chabala pointed out "the targeted materials (CRMs) are mostly already locked in by China, and the Asians are leaders in EV technology."
Chabala added, "Not only are the Chinese ubiquitously present on the African continent, but China is already far ahead in building supply chains for cobalt, lithium, and several other essential metals and minerals. And what is more, China is moving to take over the running of the TAZARA railway line, which runs from central Zambia to the port of Dar es Salaam on the Indian Ocean."
"The reality of the Lobito Corridor development is that it may be coming too late in the day. What is more, there is a proposed route, shorter by some 500 km, to the east between Lubumbashi and Dar es Salaam."
"The European Union (EU) and the U.S. are not currently leaders in EV technology. It is reported that almost 90% of cell component manufacturing, the most significant step in the battery value chain, is undertaken in Asia," Chabala said.
Van Staden told Fox News Digital, "The viability of the rail corridor partially depends on external factors. It will compete with the TAZARA rail line between Zambia and Tanzania, which will be upgraded by Chinese companies over the next few years. There will likely be pressure from the African side to connect the two lines, because that would realize a long-held goal to connect the Atlantic and Indian Ocean coasts."
"The U.S. has no choice but to seek access to critical minerals in Africa, as many of these are crucial components to the kind of high-tech manufacturing that the U.S. is trying to remain competitive in," Hudson told Fox News Digital, adding, "We simply cannot afford to cede that territory to China, nor is it too late to try to claw back our influence in this sector."
"More importantly, there is an opening to do so because Africans want diversity in their economic partnerships. Just as we are wary of China cornering the market on critical minerals in certain countries, so too are those countries worried about being so beholden to Chinese interests."
Hudson continued, "The Lobito project is really a proof of concept that the U.S. can and should be undertaking the kind of large-scale commercial infrastructure projects similar to what China has been doing on the continent for decades. Importantly, it is a recognition that we have heard the calls from African leaders that they want a relationship that is based on ’trade not aid.’"
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Chabala told Fox News Digital this week that another factor working against U.S. interests is that the Chinese are involved in ownership of the mines producing CRMs in the DRC. "They own 80% of the largest cobalt producer in Congo, they are heavily involved in the EV battery value chain, with the bulk of the value chain activities being undertaken in Asia, and they are currently the number one global producer of EVs (the Chinese auto manufacturer BYD)," he said.
He added, "The long-term strategy of the EU and U.S. ought to be to invest and establish strong counterweight economies, so much so that the impact and consequences of the Chinese economic dynamics are counterbalanced. The African continent has 1.4 billion people, 60% below the age of 24, with a landmass of more than 30 million square kilometers (over 11 million square miles)."
"This is double the population of the EU and U.S., and almost double their landmasses. The quantities of materials on the African continent and the potential they represent for the global economy are astounding. This represents [an] unfathomable potential for establishing industries on the continent, not only to counterweight the Chinese economy, but to lock in a future market for all the top brands of EU and U.S. businesses. The mind boggles that the EU and U.S. have not embarked on pursuing this strategy, decades ago."
Van Staden noted, "Chinese actors make up less than 10% of all the mining done on the continent and there is space for more engagement from many stakeholders, as long as that happens on African terms."
Hudson concluded that, with his new administration, President-elect "Trump needs to be paying attention, treating Africans as equal partners, not talking down to them, and recognizing that they have choices. If we want Africa to choose us, then it will be through the attractiveness of our offer and not as a result of pressure."
