Consumers are value-focused during the first weeks of online holiday shopping, embracing retailers’ promotions and searching for lower-priced goods, according to Signifyd’s latest analysis

Consumers are displaying a dramatic determination to get more for their money this holiday season by relying more heavily on discounts and trading down for lower-priced items, according to early seasonal data from commerce protection provider Signifyd.

U.S. ecommerce sales for the first two weeks of October were up 3% over a year ago. But whether retailers were cheering or reassessing their holiday strategies was highly dependent on their retail category, according to Signifyd’s Holiday Season Pulse Tracker. Throughout the holiday season, the newly launched Pulse Tracker will provide updated data on holiday online sales by vertical, order value figures and fraud trends, including first-party fraud.

The latest Ecommerce Pulse numbers were good news for online merchants. On top of early October’s sales boost, U.S. ecommerce sales increased 8% in September over the same month a year ago. Online shoppers last month also placed more orders of slightly lesser value than in September 2023, according to Signifyd. Taken together the numbers show that consumers are ready to spend — but again only when the price is right.

Key findings from Signifyd’s latest Ecommerce Pulse report

• Holiday ecommerce sales for the first two weeks of October were up 3% over a year ago. Grocery and apparel led the way, and electronics saw a notable decline in year-over-year sales.
• Discount use in early October was up by 22% over last year, a sign that shoppers would stick with their value-focused shopping this holiday season.
• September ecommerce sales finished up 8% over September 2023, with exceptionally strong luxury goods sales and disappointing numbers for electronics.

Retailers must find the balance between promotions and profits

The early indications point to the importance of discounts this holiday season, which leaves retailers balancing the need to be competitive on price while preserving margins during the most crucial sales period of the year.

During the first two weeks of October, 32% of online sales were accompanied by a discount code, Signifyd data showed. That marked a 22% increase over the first two weeks of October 2023.

“It’s no surprise that we continue to see consumers hunting for bargains as the holiday shopping season begins. That said, the growth in discount code usage is pretty dramatic,” said Signifyd Senior Data Analyst Phelim Killough, who prepared the latest Ecommerce Pulse report. “Retailers can expect shoppers to be value-oriented throughout the holiday season, looking for deals and trading down for less expensive items.”

Online brands understand the importance of discounts this holiday season

The significant increase in shoppers' use of discounts tells two stories: Consumers are focused on finding promotions and merchants understand they need to offer enticements to make sales.

September’s strong sales month also saw consumers looking for good values. The average online order value during the month dropped 1% compared to a year ago and the number of items in each order increased by 13%. That means consumers spent more on less expensive orders and on less expensive products in each order.

The grocery category led the sales growth in September, as it has for months, finishing up 32% compared to September 2023. Luxury goods had a strong showing, something of a surprise given the bite that essential spending is taking out of consumers’ budgets.

Even fans looking for luxury are keeping an eye on prices

But Killough noted that the increase in luxury spending was spurred by high average order values — up 18% year over year — driven by orders containing more items than last September’s orders. Those trends indicate that even when it comes to luxury, consumers are focused on value, Killough says, opting for quantity over high-priced goods.

On the losing side of the September ledger, the electronics category saw online sales fall 9% compared to last year. It’s possible consumers were holding off until the holiday season to make their electronic purchases.

While it’s too early in the holiday season — which Signifyd defines as October through December — to draw firm conclusions, Killough pointed out the electronics category saw something of a turnaround between the first and second weeks of October. During the first week, online electronics sales fell 25% compared to the first week of October 2023. During week two, the year-over-year sales decline had fallen to 5%.

The grocery and apparel categories are early winners this holiday season

Categories off to a fast start this holiday season include grocery, up 24% during the first two weeks of October and apparel, up 8%, compared to the first two weeks of October 2023.

Besides electronics, verticals that saw a decline early in October include the alcohol, tobacco and cannabis category and the auto parts category, both of which were down 12% year-over-year.

Signifyd is projecting overall ecommerce sales will finish the holiday season up 7% over a year ago, with sales in October rising 5% compared to October 2023.

Methodology

Signifyd’s Ecommerce Holiday Season Pulse Tracker data is derived from transactions on Signifyd’s Commerce Network of thousands of ecommerce retailers and brands. Commerce Network intelligence also powers Signifyd’s Commerce Protection Platform, which leverages AI-driven machine learning models and data from billions of transactions to detect and block fraudulent activity while increasing the number of good orders approved. Signifyd has seen more than 600 million unique shopper wallets¹ globally, meaning that 98% of the time when a shopper comes to a Signifyd-protected site, Signifyd’s machine-learning models recognize the shopper instantly.

About Signifyd

Signifyd provides an end-to-end Commerce Protection Platform that leverages its Commerce Network to maximize conversion, automate customer experience and eliminate fraud and consumer abuse risk for retailers. Signifyd, which is the leading provider of payment security and fraud prevention for the Digital Commerce 360 Top 1000 Retailers, is headquartered in San Jose, CA, with locations in Denver, New York, Mexico City, São Paulo, Belfast and London.

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1</sup> A digital wallet is a distinct combination of signals present in an online transaction.

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U.S. ecommerce sales for the first two weeks of October were up 3% over a year ago. Whether retailers were cheering or reassessing their holiday strategies was highly dependent on their retail category, according to Signifyd’s Holiday Season Pulse Tracker.