September spending data indicates consumers are cautious heading into the crucial holiday shopping season

Online sales will see slim growth this holiday season with ecommerce spending over the Cyber Five weekend projected to be 4% higher than last year and total season sales up 5% compared to 2022, according to a data analysis by commerce protection provider Signifyd.

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While modest, this holiday’s ecommerce sales growth builds on a strong season last year and comes after months of talk of inflation and unsettling economic news. Adding to the mixed outlook, the analysis, based on transaction intelligence from Signifyd’s Commerce Network of thousands of merchants, underscores that holiday 2023 will play out differently depending on a merchant’s particular vertical.

“I see that there is going to be some pretty modest growth, but with some real opportunity for retailers depending on their categories and how well they’re able to execute,” Signifyd Chief Customer Officer J. Bennett said. “Retailers who are able to get in front of their customers when they want to be sold to and deliver value in a beautiful experience can look forward to significant success this season.”

Signifyd will provide live data updates throughout the holiday season on its Holiday Season Pulse tracker. The holiday tracker includes data charting overall season sales, sales by vertical, sales by device, use of discounts, fraud trends and dynamically updated season sales projections from today through December.

Signifyd’s analysis projects a strong season for apparel and electronics with year-over-year sales in the fourth quarter up by 9% and 8% respectively. Sporting goods is projected to see a 5% increase compared to last year, while the health and beauty and home goods categories will both fall 5% below their 2022 fourth-quarter sales.

Sales over the Cyber Five — the crucial selling period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday — will be even more bumpy. Signifyd’s prediction sees only apparel having a breakout Cyber Five, with sales up 10% over 2022. Electronics will see 1% growth, while sporting goods and home goods will fall 1% below last year’s levels and health and beauty will be down 2%.

Consumers will continue to get an early jump on holiday shopping, with ecommerce sales rising by 7% in October over a year ago, Signifyd predicts. November sales will also increase by 5% before the holiday frenzy cools a bit, with sales increasing by only 3% year-over-year in December.

While the projected sales numbers for the season are less than spectacular, Signifyd Data Analyst Phelim Killough said the figures should be viewed in a bigger context.

“They’re perhaps underwhelming from a year-over-year perspective when compared to the double-digit, year-over-year growth from seasons past,” said Killough, who conducted Signifyd’s analysis. “But we’re building off a higher foundation. We haven’t seen a decline in year-over-year sales since the onset of COVID. We’ve simply seen a slowing in growth.”

The predicted holiday spending would come in the wake of September data that shows U.S. consumers continuing to hold back. Overall ecommerce spending was up 3% from September 2022, according to Signifyd Ecommerce Pulse Data. And similar to August, September buying patterns show evidence that shoppers continued to value needs over wants.

Online grocery sales were up 28% year over year in September, owing in part to high food prices, while sales of luxury items fell 8%, Signifyd data shows. The electronics, and outdoor and leisure categories had strong months, finishing higher than last year by 17% and 8% respectively. Beauty and cosmetics had a modest 3% rise.

Auto parts, apparel and home goods all fell below last year, down 2%, 3% and 6% respectively.

Signifyd’s projections are based on recent transaction and growth trends and seasonality factors. Its pulse data is derived from transactions on Signifyd’s Commerce Network of thousands of brands and merchants. For a tutorial explaining the methods and meanings behind Signifyd’s Holiday Season Pulse Tracker visit Signifyd’s YouTube channel.

About Signifyd

Signifyd provides an end-to-end Commerce Protection Platform that leverages its Commerce Network to maximize conversion, automate customer experience and eliminate fraud and consumer abuse risk for retailers. Its solutions provide the transparency and control that brands need to succeed in the rapidly changing world of commerce. Signifyd, which is the leading provider of payment security and fraud prevention for the Top 1000 Retailers for 2023, is headquartered in San Jose, CA, with locations in Denver, New York, Mexico City, São Paulo, Belfast and London.

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Online sales will see slim growth this holiday season with ecommerce spending over the Cyber Five weekend projected to be 4% higher than last year and total season sales up 5% compared to 2022, according to Signifyd.